RainTo all of you who have performed the Rain Dance, we thank you!  That liquid gold has finally returned to Arizona!

With the drenching we’ve had yesterday afternoon and this morning, combined with Arizona’s autumn season coming to an end about two weeks early, we start turning our sights not just on enjoying the holidays, but also on getting excited about our images for next spring during the wildflower blooms!

Three resources we use frequently this time of year to help us visualize when and where the flowers might appear include:

  1. NOAA’s El Nino Forecast: (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml)  Published in the second week of each month, this free report forecasts weather patterns based on various models.  According to their reports, Arizona moved out of the drier La Nina forecast in May and the onset of the wetter El Nino looked promising…until August when it dissipated!   Now forecasters suggest we’ll stay in a “Neutral” pattern, so we’ll likely be not too wet, but not too dry, in the months to come.
  2. The Farmer’s Almanac – Long Range Weather Forecast /7-Southwest Region:  (www.farmersalmanac.com/long-range-weather-forecast/southwest-us) Surprisingly accurate (even though they predicted drier conditions during December 12-15th…), this resource provides weather prediction in 3-day increments.  You’re able to see two-months worth of information, but if you sign up for a free account, they will show you their crystal ball for four-months ahead instead.  (I signed up earlier this year, and I’ve yet to receive a spammy-like email from them after doing so.) Their reports forecast sporadic moisture now through March which seems to match what we’d expect in the Neutral weather pattern NOAA’s predicting.
  3. Rainlog.org:  (rainlog.org)  This free website provides the actual amount of rain collected in specific areas across Arizona.  Using the Date Range or Monthly Report options, we see that November was much drier than December for most of the state but there are a few wildflower hot-spots that have seen solid rainfall in both months.  For example, the Gold Canyon area near the Superstition Mountains saw roughly an inch of rain in November, and has already seen a half-inch in December.  That could mean a good start for the flowers in places like Lost Dutchman State Park (location #31 in our Wild in Arizona: Photographing Arizona’s Wildflowers book), Silly Mountain (#32), Peralta Trail (#33), Hewitt Canyon (#34), and the Apache Trail (#48).

So what will happen come next February?  Only Mother Nature will tell when the Mexican gold poppies, lupine, and all the other beautiful blooms arrive next spring!  Keep in mind that the annuals are more picky when its comes to precipitation; so even if we don’t get the perfect mix of rain, warmth, and light for the poppies, the less-demanding perennials like brittlebush, desert globemallow, palo verde trees, and all the cacti are loving every minute of this rain too!

Wishing you all a “picture-perfect” holiday season and a very Happy New Year in 2013!  And whatever you do, please keep doing the Rain Dance!

The last fall color along the San Pedro River is now over one week early. There is a little Cottonwood fall color left in the Palominas area down to the border also a few trees along the Mescal Arroyo east of Tucson.

San Pedro House

Patagonia Sonoita preserve

The Verde River from Bartlett Lake to the Salt River confluence is showing good color now with some peak, some green and some past like most of the cottonwood river ways in the lower deserts. Some images from the Needle rock area

Verde reflection

Needle Rock fall

Box Bar fall

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